8/22/2012

The death of scaring a dead grandma to death


Almost overnight, actually it was overnight, the Obama campaign began talking about education. While everyone, everyone being the political pundits, was still talking about how medicare is toxic to the Romney/Ryan ticket, the Obama campaign dropped the subject like the proverbial hot potato and returned to pandering to the high school and college crowd.

Kids will be kids.

The reason for this is obvious, as I pointed out before the demographic which is most hostile to Obama and his policies, particularly about health issues, are senior citizens. There have been several more polls that point this out and which ought to scare the Obama campaign to...well, back to the college crowd.

The first comes from a state which should be safe for a Democratic incumbent but which is looking more and more like it is in play, Pennsylvania. The  Franklin Marshall poll of registered voters shows Obama up 44-38, Obama only having 44% at this late date does not bode well for him and here is  a reason why he is polling so low.

The Franklin Marshall poll only has three different breakouts by age so the closest is for people ages 55 and over rather than the usual 65+ demographic. In this age group Obama leads by 3 (44-41) which is still pretty close for a blue state like Pennsylvania. BUT that does not tell the entire story, because in the Franklin Marshall poll they also have a breakout of retired people. Now if there ever were a group who would be influenced by the mediscare  tactics it would be self identified retired people, right?

So how does Romney fare in this blue state with the elderly? He is up by 12% (48-36). So in a state where Obama should be the prohibitive favorite and where , if the narrative were correct, seniors should be flocking to Obama, Romney does 10% better among retired people than the rest of the state and Obama does 8% worse. Always remember that seniors vote in higher percentages than any other age group and young people vote in lower percentages than any age group.

But Pennsylvania is not the only "blue state" where the mediscare tactic is falling on deaf ears a
New Michigan Poll not only finds Romney ahead in his home state 48-44 it is even worse for Obama among seniors as the pollsters recognized from their results.
“In a state with a significant senior citizen voting population, the overall support for Congressman Ryan’s budget plan must be very troubling for the President and his team.”
I would think so but it isn't just Michigan seniors:
Additionally the Ryan Budget plan is supported by a plurality of Michigan voters. 47.99% support Ryan’s budget which includes a major overhaul of Medicare and Social Security while 45.01% oppose the plan.

So not only is the mediscare strategy not working, the Romney/Ryan plan is more popular than "maintaining the status quo".

To put a final nail in this coffin ABC/WAPO has just released a poll which Aaron Blake at WAPO explains this way:(emphasis mine)

Grandma isn’t scared of Paul Ryan.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows 41 percent of Americans view the new GOP vice presidential nominee favorably, while 37 percent rate him unfavorably — slightly improved from last week’s polling.

Among seniors, though, the numbers are even better for Ryan: 50 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable. Fully one-third of seniors say they have a strongly favorable view of the Wisconsin congressman, while one-quarter have a strongly unfavorable view.

The reason is, as I explained before, Paul Ryan is a true Reagan Republican and today's seniors are predominately those who enacted the Reagan Revolution with their votes when they were in the prime of their working lives.

The fact is that whatever support Obama had among seniors has been diminished even more due to his policies towards them.

Grandma ain't scared, but Obama should be.

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