9/20/2012

Polls, polls .../UPDATE

Via-Jer's Notes
I really am going to write about something other than polls...someday. But I thought that this particular situation merited a comment.

Two polls came out today for Iowa, both purporting to be "Likely Voter" polls the first is a Rasmussen poll which shows Romney +3 (47-44). which is pretty much in line with the last poll Rasmussen did in August which had Romney up by two.

On the same day that Rasmussen shows Romney up 3 among "Likely voters" NBC/Marist releases a poll of "Likely voters " showing Obama up....wait for it Obama +8 (50-42). 

Two polls same day 11 points difference! Obviously they both can not be correct. Since I do not have access to Rasmussen cross tabs, you have to pay for them, I checked out the NBC poll which among registered voters has a D+6 partisan breakdown (35/29/ 33) and among likely voters a D+5 (36/31/33) .

The only problem with this is that there are more registered Republicans in Iowa than Democrats. So I believe I'll go with Rasmussen, which I always do.

Oh and by the way in November 2008 there were far more registered Democrats than Republicans in Iowa, in fact there were over 96,000 more registered Democrats in Iowa in November 2008 than there are today. I wonder what happened?

UPDATE

The NBC folks did the same thing in their Colorado poll released today which they show Obama +5 (50-45) Their partisan breakdown among registered voters is D+3 (34/31/34) and D+2 for "Likely Voters" (34/32/32). The problem with this is that there are more registered Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, 100,000 more. There are more registered Republicans in Colorado than Independents yet they poll less of them than either Democrats or Independents, delusional.

1 comment:

  1. This is really discouraging. We're being fed lies, distortions, and opinions in the place of facts. How is the ordinary person supposed to sort it all out?

    ReplyDelete