9/23/2012

Thought You Would Like To Know

Via-Jer's Notes






For those who might be overly concerned with recent polling and the media's attempt to "call" the election for Obama, I thought I would put together some evidence that might calm your spirit a bit.

In no particular order here are some facts that I have come across recently that indicate the race isn't quite as one sided as the media would have you  believe and most of the polls are seriously flawed.


* On election day 2008 there were 9,420 more registered Republicans in Colorado than registered Democrats. As of August 30, 2012 (last month available) there were 97,954  more registered Republicans then registered Democrats in Colorado. A net change of  88,534 voters in the Republicans favor. Obama won Colorado by 214,988 votes. 
*On election day 2008 there were 82,706 more registered Democrats in Iowa than registered Republicans. As of October 4, 2012 there were 18,232 more registered Republicans than Democrats in Iowa. A net change of 100,938 voters in the Republicans favor. Obama won Iowa by 146,562 votes. 
*On election day 2008 there were 694,147 more registered Democratic voters in Florida than registered Republicans. As of August 12, 2012 there were 454,752 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in Florida. A net change of 239,395 voters in the Republicans favor . Obama won the state of Florida by 236,450 votes. 
*On election day 2008 there were 864,253 more registered Democrats in North Carolina than registered Republicans. As of September 22, 2012 there were 769,926 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in North Carolina. A net change of 94,327 voters in the Republicans favor . Obama won the state of  North Carolina by 14,177 votes.  
* In August the Rasmussen Report showed the largest Party affiliation preference for Republicans they have ever recorded which goes  back to 2004. The rating was 37.6% while the Democratic rating was 33.3% for a difference of Republicans +4.3% also the largest margin of difference for Republican over Democrats in Rasmussen history. To show the potential significance of this Republican advantage in November of 2010 when the Republicans took back control of the House and picked up 6 seats in the senate the difference was Republican +1.3%. In November of 2004 when Bush won reelection it was Democrats +1.6%. 
*Wisconsin is in play, despite some dreadfully skewed polling lately that throws off the averages, Wisconsin which went for Obama by 14 points in 2008 is definitely in play. How do we know this? Common sense and the fact that Obama went there this week to rally the base. Remember it was just June when in a very high profile recall election of Governor Scott Walker that he not only beat back the challenge by not only a larger margin than he won originally but ahead of nearly all of the polling going into the recall election.
*In 2008 the following swing states had Democratic Governors.  Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire. Today only Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina still have Democratic Governors and in New Hampshire and North Carolina there are elections for governor and the Republicans are leading handily in the polls. Not only does a presidential candidate receive the help of the "party machine" in a state where his party has the governorship, it also shows the transformation of the electorate since 2008. On the subject since I also believe that both Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play you can add those two states into the column of states which have changed governorship party since 2008. Speaking of Pennsylvania (still a long shot for Romney) Republicans have picked up a net 315,572 in registered voters versus Democrats since 2008.
*In the Gallup Poll weekly approval averages Obama has not been at or above 90% approval with blacks in over a year. Since he received 95% of the black vote on a record turn out of 13% of the electorate in 2008 this loss in approval will hurt him at the polls in November either through a lower percentage of blacks voting for him or lower turn out. 
*In the Gallup Poll weekly approval averages Obama has remained in the mid to high thirties among whites seldom reaching even his current high of 40%. In 2008 Obama received 43% of the white vote, while the media harps on the Hispanic vote and its importance the fact is that if Obama drops below 40% of the white vote it will be nearly impossible for him to win. This is especially true if black and Hispanic participation is below 2008 levels which it very well  could be.  
*The facts are that in virtually every demographic category with the possible exception of  Hispanics, Obama's approval ratings have been far below his 2008 vote totals in those categories. As just one example his current job approval among the 18-29 year age group is 57% which is higher than it has been in awhile but still 9% less than the 66% of that age group that voted for him in 2008. As I said this lower approval rating is across the board in every demographic group.

Based on the above and many other indicators, despite what you may be hearing from the sycophant media and polls which show unrealistic turn out models, not only is this election not over, Obama is in real trouble.

2 comments:

  1. Jer
    There is something missing in this statement.

    *On election day 2008 there were 694,147 more registered voters in Florida than registered Republicans. As of August 12, 2012 there were 454,752 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in Florida. A net change of 239,395 voters in the Republicans favor . Obama won the state of Florida by 236,450 votes.

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