9/26/2012

Where do they go to get their reputation back?

Via-Jer's Notes





The word often used this election season is journalistic malpractice, it is appropriate. I do not know what do these media outlets do after November to reestablish any credibility with the public, or if they even care about that anymore.

The most recent example of this comes in the form of another swing state poll from CBS/Quinnipac which shows Obama way ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The one in Ohio (Obama up 10) is so skewed that it sends the RCP average from Toss Up to lean Obama putting him in their electoral map just 5 electoral votes shy of election victory.Here are the important data points that show how ridiculous these polls are.

Before we get to the party breakdown lets look at the so called enthusiasm gap. According to CBS, in Florida, Democrats are 24% more enthusiastic to vote than they were on August 1. Democrats enthusiasm jumped from 24% to 48% in less than two months?  That is also a 12 point jump since their last poll a month ago on August 27. Is this possible? What all of a sudden got in the water in Florida? And it is only in Florida.

In Ohio it only jumped 1% from 32 to 33 since August 1 which is actually a drop from 34 % a month ago! In Pennsylvania they did not poll on August 27 but since August 1 the enthusiasm among Pennsylvania's Democrats to vote has only increased 2% from 26% to 28%. Think about that in Ohio only 33% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting and in Pennsylvania only 28% are but somehow in Florida 48 % are. Despite this obvious overwhelming trend in enthusiasm in the Democratic Party, here is the enthusiasm gap for the two parties in these three states according to this poll R/D, Florida 52/48, Ohio 43/33 and Pennsylvania 45/28. In everyone of these states the Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote than the Democrats even in Florida where the Democrats are obviously smoking something that they need to share with their peers in other states, All of this makes the next set of numbers even more obscene,

In Florida which had a D+3 turn out in 2008 and was even in 2010, CBS is projecting a party turn out of D+9.a D/R/I 36/27/33. In Ohio where the enthusiam gap favors the Republicans by 10% and had a party turn out of D+8 in 2008 and was even in 2010. CBS is saying the turn out will be D+9, 35/26/35. Finally in Pennsylvania where the enthusiasm gap favors the Republicans by 7% where in 2008 the party turn out was D+7 and in 2010 was a D+3, CBS is saying the turnout will be D+11.39/28/37.

In 1987 former Secretary of Labor Ray Donovan was acquitted of corruption charges and was famously quoted as saying "Which office do I go to get my reputation back?"One wonders where these media outlets and polling firms will go to get their reputations back after they are shown to be so corrupt after the election. I suspect they won't be able to, they truly have jumped the shark and they like "Happy Days" will be canclled

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