United Technologies/National Journal
Turn Out (D/R/I)
Using a turn out model of D+7 which is what it was in 2008 this poll shows a tied race. Since common sense and reality says that the turn out model in 2012 will be nowhere near as advantageous for Democrats as it was in 2008. This poll actually shows that Romney is ahead of Obama, probably by a considerable amount. Note also that Obama is at 38% with whites (can't win) down to Romney with Independents 49-41 (can't win) and losing in every age demographic over 30 years old (can't win). Everything about this poll shows disaster for Obama.
I think polling here on out will begin to show this type of numbers if not worse for Obama. The media/pollsters gave the Obama inevitability meme a good shot after the conventions but if they want to maintain a shred of credibility from here on out they have to play it somewhat straight. They will use the debates to try to shape the narrative and as an excuse for their previous polling from here on out.