10/02/2012

Today's Poll 10/2/2012

From-Jer's Notes

Quinnipiac University
National

Highlights

Results
Obama 49 Romney 45

Turnout Model  (D/R/I)
30/24/38 (1)

By Party Obama/Romney
(D) 94/5(2)
(R) 7/91 (3)
(I) 45/47 (4)


Notes

Another Poll with Obama below 50%, this is important especially since the demographics of the poll are again weighted to Obama's unrealistic advantage.

(1) This poll forecasts a D+6 turnout which is basically the same historic turnout as the Democrats had in 2008 (D+7).  Not only is this turnout unrealistic, again they have drastically under-polled Republicans (24%) they have greatly over sampled Independents (38%). This is becoming a common practice in these polls, they keep the party affiliations within some semblance of reality by lowering  forecasts of both party's turnout while increasing the number of Independents  beyond what is reasonably possible. This dilutes Romney's overall advantage among the two demographics where Romney actually holds the lead, Republicans and Independents.  Clever but reality is reality.

(2) Another poll that shows historic Democratic Party loyalty to their candidate (94%) a full 5% increase for Obama over 2008 (89%). So we are to believe that Obama has gained among Democrats ?

(3) Another poll showing Republican's less loyal to Romney (91%) than they were to McCain (93%). Right

(4) Once again Romney leads among Independents 47-45. Even with this slight margin, it is doubtful that Obama could win, in 2008 Obama won Independents by 8% (52-44). In what universe are these pollsters polling where Obama can have a double digit loss of Independents from 2008 to Romney and be ahead by 4%? It simply is not possible.

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