10/05/2012

Today's Polls 10/05/2012

Via-Jer's Notes

There are no new national polls today other than the daily tracking polls which remain basically unchanged, Rasmussen Obama +2 and Gallup Obama +5 though the Ipsops daily poll shows Romney cutting  Obama's lead by half since debate to Obama +2 from +4 pre-debate.  Any movement in these as the result of the debates will really begin to show beginning Sunday and into first part of next week because they are multi-day averages.

However a host of polls were done Thursday and released today in individual states which do reflect movement as the result of the debate. They were all done in swing states and most show movement towards Romney. Here are a list of them and how they have changed since their last poll.

Ohio
Rasmussen Obama +1 (unchanged)
We Ask America Romney +1 (Romney +9)

Virginia
Rasmussen Romney +1(Romney +2)
We Ask America Romney +3 (Romney +6)

Florida
Rasmussen Romney +2 (Romney +4)
We Ask America Romney +3 (Romney+6)

Nevada
Gravis Obama +1 (first poll)

The one that intrigues me is the Gravis poll in Nevada for a couple of reasons. First it puts the race there as a virtual toss up and of the two "western" swing states I thought this was more likely to go Obama than Colorado. The other reason is the demographic breakdown which shows Obama only leading among blacks 58.7% to 34.1% and winning the Hispanic vote only 62.8% to 37.2%. This, especially the black vote, does not seem realistic and probably is just an anomaly that is the reason for the close vote overall, but it sure is interesting. However it does make me interested to see future polls out of Nevada.

All in all these polls look good for Romney and in fact on the RCP average it has moved Ohio back into the Toss Up from lean Obama. The truth is I think Romney will win Ohio fairly easily, if there is one key swing state I have been worried about it is Virginia, but today's polls seem to be trending Romney's way there...for now.

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