10/01/2012

Today's Polls 10/1/2012

I had been planning on analyzing the polling  as we got closer to the election so this seem like a good time to do it.  Rather than attempt to analyze all of the polling I will just pick some that I find interesting for whatever reason. Depending on the day I may do more than one poll though not necessarily in the same post. Anything I  boldface in the Highlights are items I find noteworthy.

ABC/WAPO
National

Highlights

Results
Obama 49 Romney 47

Turnout Model  (D/R/I)
33/28/34 (1)

By Party Obama/Romney
(D) 91/7 (2)
(R) 6/90 (3)
(I) 45/49 (4)

Notes

Obviously this shows that the race is much closer than the media has been portraying recently.  Some things to note on this poll 

(1) Although the turnout model is much closer to reality D+5 than some recent polling I believe it still represents an unrealistic Democratic advantage, my guess is that if the Democrats have a turnout advantage at all nationally it will be in the D+2 range.They also, as is usual this election season, under polled  Republicans (28) and over polled Independents (34).

(2) According to this poll 91% of Democrats will vote for Obama. This would be a larger percentage of Democrats voting for their candidate than has happened in decades. In 2008 Obama received 89% of the Democratic vote.

(3) This poll shows Romney receiving 90% of the Republican vote which would be pretty low for a Republican presidential candidate. McCain received 93% of the Republican vote in 2008.

(4) Probably the most important item in the poll is that Romney is winning the Independents 49-45. If Romney actually does win the Independents nationally especially by more than one or two pints it is hard to see how Obama can win.

Some other items of interest in the poll, Obama is only getting 40% of the white vote, he received 43% in 2008. It is my belief that 40% is the absolute lowest percentage of the white vote that Obama can receive and hope to win. Also of note is that only 84% of Obama voters said they were definitely voting for him while 5% said there was a "good chance" they would change and 10% said they were "unlikely" to change their mind. For Romney voters it was 88%, 1%, and 10%. If 5% of Obama voters say that there is a good chance they could change their minds-that is big.

There are other very interesting items in this poll which look good for Romney, Obama's approval on economy 47% and on foreign policy 49% both of which were asked of registered, not likely voters. 81% of those interviewed rated the economy as "not so good" or "poor".

All in all I would say this was a very good poll for Romney




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