His First Pay Check!

He said what?

internal study by the Council of Economic Advisers:

Nursing home residents in US are 27% of deaths vs .35% of the population. All long term care facilities including nursing homes account for 40% of deaths. And within nursing home deaths, 10% of nursing homes account for 80% of all nursing home deaths—amounting to a whopping 21% total of all deaths.

That is one way to describe it I guess

COVID -19 STATE'S CASE FATALITY RATES

A million asymptomatic test results does not equal even one death.

At this time the only true indicator of how a state is handling or, if you wish, how a state has been impacted by the covid-19 virus is its CFR, (Case Fatality Rate). Though it is true that an individual state's CFR is impacted by the tests done in that particular state, the national testing program has reached the point that it reasonably represents a state's status. If a state is experiencing a spike in cases, it will have far more tests performed per capita, thus the CFR will fairly well reflect the state's condition. Yesterday the United had almost 930,000 test results reported, in a single day.  The only true metric of how a state is "doing" is deaths. Regardless of how many cases or even hospitalizations there may be in any given time period, it is the fatalities that indicate the severity of the outbreak. A million asymptomatic test results does not equal even one death.

The current national CFR is 3.49%, which means that 3.49% of all cases were fatal. This number has steadily dropped over time as more testing is done and will continue to drop. The national CFR reached its peak on May 16th at 5.98%.

Below I will show the State's including DC and Puerto Rico CFR % broken down in thirds. The top third of states with highest CFR are:

 You will notice that Louisiana, though in the top one third of states is now below the national CFR average. I would also note that all states, even those who are experiencing a "surge" in cases, CFR's are dropping as testing ramps up.

The middle third of states are:

Note that the nation's largest state, California ranks 30th of states with the highest CFR and it is not due to a lack of cases or testing, they rank first in both. You will also notice that Arizona, Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama and  South Carolina which all are in the media constantly for being "surge" states, all remain in the second tier of CFR states. 

The bottom third of states with the lowest CFR:

The second and third most populous states in the United States are in the bottom tier of Case Fatality Rate states. Florida ranks 42nd while amazingly Texas ranks 46th. Remember that the more testing done in any state will bring their CFR down, not up. This, I suspect, is why New York and New Jersey who currently have few daily deaths and relatively low numbers of new cases continue to test in enormous numbers, it brings down their CFR.

There goes the neighborhood

AS SEEN ON TWITTER 7/24/2020

Here ya go fraudshttps://t.co/5IVZuNKQRh

— A Patriot 🇺🇸 (@REORealtor) July 24, 2020

Durham and Barr do not want this investigation to be used for political points, which is the way it should be. There are major rumors that there are already indictments. There are some indictments in the pipeline also for sure. The scope of this investigation is huge. Massive.

— Adam Housley (@adamhousley) July 25, 2020

If your girlfriend is trying to get your attention over something in your relationship and she burns your house down, do you go- “hey, yeah I should pay better attention” or do you think she’s psychotic? Same goes for ANTIFA & others using violence in the name of “a dialogue”.

— Carol Roth (@caroljsroth) July 24, 2020

When the Past Offends the Present

No history and no future in this new utopia of Social Justice

Someone pointed out that you can tell how little influence conservatives have on American culture, in that it took liberals to finally "cancel" Margaret Sanger, the bigoted founder of Planned Parenthood. This has to do with a Planned Parenthood facility in New York removing her name and declaring that, well what everyone knows, that she was not only a bad person her goal was the destruction of "inferior" races.

Planned Parenthood of Greater New York on Tuesday said it’ll ditch the name of Margaret Sanger — one of the founders of the national organization — from its Lower Manhattan clinic over her “harmful connections to the eugenics movement.”
The group is also talking to New York City leaders about scrapping Sanger’s name from a street sign that’s hung near its Bleecker Street offices for more than 20 years.

The main reason I transformed from a liberal to a conservative is that I could no longer justify the lies I had to ignore in order to maintain a liberal ideology. This is a similar situation, eventually the hypocrisy begins to show and the leftist cancel culture, in order to maintain any legitimacy must begin to eat its own.  This is a very small bite, but there are others.

Princeton University says it is to remove the name of former US President Woodrow Wilson from a building on its campus because of his racist beliefs and policies. 

Well being that Woodrow Wilson was the most racist President in modern US history, and a democrat, it is understandable. When they come for LBJ we will know they are serious. 

Then today I read this:

The Sierra Club will remove monuments of its founder John Muir over his racist history, the environmental conservation organization announced Wednesday morning.The green group, which Muir founded in 1892, said that as the country begins to reassess the purpose and meaning of Confederate statues and memorials, “it’s time to take down some of our own monuments, starting with some truth-telling about the Sierra Club’s early history.”

The total insanity and hubris of this movement to destroy history is pretty much summed up in this statement from the Sierra Club:

“The most monumental figure in the Sierra Club’s past is John Muir,” it said in a statement. “Beloved by many of our members, his writings taught generations of people to see the sacredness of nature.”

 

This is why they must eventually come for Washington, Jefferson and all the founding fathers, slave holders or not. They all in some way fall short of today's  standards. All of history falls short of today's standards, that is the point of preserving history.  The fact that John Muir was a man of his times is too deep a concept for the shallow minds that inhabit the progressive movement, talk about your oxymoron.  Muir, and all of history really, has not lived up to the woke understanding of the modern day mental pygmies, so they must all be cannibalized to nourish the unquenchable thirst of the social justice vampires. They must suck the blood of the past in order to create a darkness in which they can survive. Enlightened humility is beyond their grasp.

 If  Muir, a shepherd who led mankind to a better understanding of our place with nature is to be wiped clean because he held popular beliefs of his time, where will we find ourselves? Where will it all end? Shouldn't we close Yosemite National Park? It, after all, is truly the greatest monument to Muir's life there is.  If yesterday's beliefs are to be today's crimes we will have no history and no future in this new utopia of Social Justice, for we all have sinned and fallen short of the Woke.

If history is to be judged by the present with no context then perhps Louie Gohmert, has it right. For if past performance is to be the judge of current acceptability, there is one institution that must surely be removed, even before the Redskins.

Rep. Louie Gohmert (TX-01) introduced a Privileged Resolution calling upon Congress to ban any political organization or party that has ever held a public position supportive of slavery or the Confederate States of America.
It also calls for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to remove from the House wing of the U.S. Capitol or any House office building any item that names, symbolizes or mentions any political organization or party that supported slavery or the Confederacy.

Why not? Nancy Pelosi made a big show of removing the portraits of Speakers of the House who ended up in the Confederacy. The House has voted to remove statues of any confederates in Statuary Hall in the Capitol. They were all Democrats. The confederacy was entirely a product of the Democratic Party to preserve slavery in the south where all the slave holders were Democrats. This is without even getting into the founding and support of the KKK and instituting Jim Crowe laws and segregation throughout the south. Bull Connors was a Democrat, George Wallace was a Democrat. The Democratic Party were by far the worst offenders in American history of institutional bigotry, hell the Democrats invented systemic racism in America. Oh did I mention Harry Byrd or William Fulbright or Albert Gore Sr. the list of Democrat bigots is almost limitless. 

 

Why do they get a pass in this new cancel culture. They surely need to be destroyed for the sins of their fathers, lest their legacy offend the present. If the past offends the present, not only does the past not care, it is not the past's fault. 

All of history is a tapestry woven together with threads that created the now. Few if any of those threads were unsoiled and we will not build a better future by attempting to remove those threads. The simple undeniable truth is that there is no Martin Luther King Jr. and his tremendous inspiration without George Wallace. Overcoming, change, recognition and advancement is the historical record of mankind. To hide from or to destroy that record out of some sense of self-righteous arrogance is not some form of enlightened justice, it is the opening a door into the dark cave of ignorance. ISIS destroys the past in order to enslave the present, that is what the new Woke culture is seeking to do and it must be stopped at all cost.   

The Recorded Deaths vs Date of Death hype

"There were ten more Covid 19 deaths reported in the South Carolina today. An additional 29 fatalities were added for days earlier in the week, bringing this weeks total fatalities to 131. An additional 10 fatalities going back to May 29th were also added today bringing the state's total fatalities from the Covid 19 virus to 1,334. July 13th remains the South Carolina's deadliest day with 38 deaths.  Check the states web site for details." 

I guess like everything else to do with the Covid-19 "crisis" it should not be surprising that even deaths are taken out of context. Let me begin by pointing out that nearly all states do not report most deaths on the day they occurred. Even some smaller state are behind in reporting deaths since they have not yet received the data from their counties.

This is obvious when comparing when states report their deaths and when they show up on whatever "meter" you are following. Florida for example reports once a day at 10:00 AM, South Carolina once a day at 4:00 PM. Some states, California and Texas, for example, report death more than once a day, but they are never all the deaths that occurred that day nor could they be. Look at any chart of "reported" deaths and you will see up and down spikes in the graph, this is the lack of reporting on weekends look like valleys then are offset by the peaks of mid week as reporting catches up. This compounds itself the bigger the state where the reporting to recording sage can take even longer.

On July 16, the media, both local and national, breathlessly reported that South Carolina had recorded the most deaths of any day since the pandemic started, 72. Here you can see it as it is on the WorldMeter site and all other such sites.

Note that they describe this as "Daily Deaths" and "deaths per day". The reality is that more deaths were "recorded" but that was not the death count for that day. Here is South Carolina's official daily death count by day.

 It may be difficult to read, but the official count for July 16 is seven bars from the right, 23 deaths not 72. A few more may be added in the next few days as the state catches up, it will not come close to 72. Most data is pretty much complete in a week to ten days. Although it will be widely reported that July 16th was South Carolina's "deadliest day" with 72 deaths you will note that the most deaths on any day in South Carolina thus far was 38 on July 13th, 10 days ago. Today's count of 10 deaths (far right) is being recorded and reported as 49 deaths in the media. From the official South Carolina daily death count graph.

Today was Florida's "deadliest day" which is actually yesterday since Florida like almost all states is a day behind. But regardless the delay in reporting at the state level which is totally unavoidable in a nation as large as ours, distorts reality. Tonight, on the evening news we will hear that today Florida set a new record for deaths, but they did not really. Here is Florida's official daily death toll.

As of now 20 people died of COVID-19  on 7/22/2020. As the days go on, that number will grow with more reporting and recording. It is doubtful however that it will ever reach 172 since it is beginning so low. Thus far the actual most deaths on any day in Florida from Covid 19 is 104 on July 8th.

Is this important, well yes. First it is a matter of optics and second it is a matter of timing. The optics are obvious, every day that there is something "dramatic" to report is another day to prolong the "crisis." The actual daily deaths are far less dramatic looking when the graph showing fatalities is spread out.   Compare the chart above with this:

 

 Not only does it look like Florida is on a severe upswing when they are possibly headed downwards. The actual highest daily death toll in Florida, that we are sure of, is 68 less and two weeks earlier than is popularly reported or believed by the general public. The day of death charts will obviously change and more deaths will be added, but doesn't it seem important to know the actual numbers rather than the hype? Can you imagine if, from the beginning, only confirmed recorded daily deaths were reported and then an explanation of recorded deaths were explained, like I wrote at the top of this article.

Meanwhile the Case Fatality Rate, nationally, in South Carolina and in Florida continues to drop, which automatically means the Infection Fatality Rate is also dropping. While the media hypes that we went over the four million cases mark today, they fail to report that at least 2,178,000 , probably far more, have recovered, the vast majority who have never even been seriously ill or ill at all.

Covid 19 is real and as these things go, semi-serious only because there is still much we do not know. However, based on what we do know we are being played.

AS SEEN ON TWITTER 7/23/2020

I am a month away from shutting the doors on my business I've spent 6 years building. I can't breathe when I think too long about what comes next. I can't believe this is real, this shouldn't be happening because of a virus with a survival rate of 98%. #FUCoviD

— Colleen 🌟🌟🌟 (@collcoll214) July 23, 2020

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler is entering the protest crowd right now. People are already confronting him. pic.twitter.com/H7uJSGYlma

— Mike Baker (@ByMikeBaker) July 23, 2020

As far as I can tell, the 'Black Lives Matter' movement has resulted in more black deaths, increased crime in minority communities, and loss of livelihoods in places affected by riots and looting.

It's also made race relations worse.

Tell me what positives justify this damage.

— ZUBY: (@ZubyMusic) July 23, 2020

NOTABLE QUOTES

"If you vote for politicians who promise to give you someone else's money, don't complain if they give your money to someone else - or, indeed, if they give it to themselves."

-Daniel Hannan

AS SEEN ON TWITTER 7/22/2020

This footage from Portland tonight is absolutely insane. Don’t look away. pic.twitter.com/wqucd1yQmI

— Joshua Potash (@JoshuaPotash) July 22, 2020

Hoo boy this is a reporter https://t.co/DUPloSUgxD

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) July 22, 2020

Would you have guessed a year ago that a major left wing SJW cause in summer 2020 would be public school teachers not teaching kids?

— Jay W. Richards (@DrJayRichards) July 22, 2020

"Over 120 jar handles stamped 2,700 years ago with ancient Hebrew script seal impressions were discovered at the site"
But it's progressive to insist the Palestinians, and not the Jews are indigenous...https://t.co/Hcv0pExcRy

— Dr. Petra Marquardt-Bigman (@WarpedMirrorPMB) July 22, 2020

When you argue against reopening schools what you are saying is your comfort trumps the needs of millions of American kids; kids with single mothers, kids with negligent parents or working parents without the cash to “pod.” Millions of kids who barely had a chance as it is.

— Bethany S. Mandel (@bethanyshondark) July 22, 2020

Boy, do we have short term memories. https://t.co/9odyvAQZSa

— Daniel Horowitz (@RMConservative) July 22, 2020

AS SEEN ON TWITTER 7/21/2020

Imagine boycotting a company because it’s CEO was nice to Trump but being fine with a company that uses slave labor from concentration camps in China.

— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) July 21, 2020

Antifa Rioters Fire Mortars at Seattle Police Stations, Smash Windows at Amazon, Starbucks, Walgreens https://t.co/mxg3P1WPsZ

— Thomas Paine (@Thomas1774Paine) July 21, 2020

The current best estimate is an assumption.

The CDC issued an updated Covid 19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. They have come out with several interesting estimates but probably the most important is that they estimate that 40% of infections, meaning positive tests (new cases) are asymptomatic. Asymptomatic as opposed to pre-symptomatic means that the person has not and will not suffer physically from the covid-19 virus.

If correct this means that whenever you hear a number of new cases, total cases, etc. 40% are not now nor ever will be ill. It would mean, for example, that 40% of the 3.75 million plus cumulative cases or over 1.5 million people never even suffer(ed) from the virus. In fact, if we were not testing in such unprecedented numbers, they would not even know they had the virus.

Some immunologist believe that many of those that test positive are actually not asymptomatic at all, rather they are people who are immune to the virus. They believe that the positive test is of people whose immunity system has smashed the virus and the sensitivity of the test picks up the fragments of the virus that they have not yet shed. These fragment are not contagious. This is speculation though it is based on more science than the 40% figure given by the CDC. Here is the CDC footnote on that figure.

The percent of cases that are asymptomatic, i.e. never experience symptoms, remains uncertain. Longitudinal testing of individuals over time is required to accurately indicate the absence of symptoms for the full period of infectiousness. Current peer-reviewed and preprint studies vary widely in follow-up times for re-testing, or do not include re-testing of cases. Additionally, studies vary in the definition of a symptomatic case, which makes it difficult to make direct comparisons between estimates. Furthermore, the percent of cases that are asymptomatic may vary by age and studies also vary in the age groups included. 

If you think that is a vary "scientific" way of saying "we don't know" you are correct. But that little bit of footnote jujitsu is nothing compared to the one describing how infectious asymptomatic "cases" are. Those sick people that never get sick but infect others because they don't wear mask cases. Here is how the CDC describes their "knowledge" behind these "silent spreaders." I guess they are silent because they neither cough nor sneeze. 

CDC footnote on asymptomatic infectiousness.

The relative infectiousness of asymptomatic cases to symptomatic cases remains highly uncertain as asymptomatic cases are difficult to identify and transmission is difficult to observe and quantify. The estimates for relative infectiousness are assumptions based on studies of viral shedding dynamics....

They then go on to list the various studies that are inconclusive as to the infectiousness of these non-sick, sick cases of Covid 19 and conclude with this final statement. 

The current best estimate is an assumption.

Excuse me? This if you remember, the asymptomatic infectiousness, is the reason given to reverse course on mask wearing. Nice to know that we are following the science.

So I know you are dying to know what that assumption is. Well here it is folks this is the CDC Pandemic Planning Scenario assumption of this nation dividing "suggestion." 

 "Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic"

(drum roll)

75%

After admitting to not having a clue, the CDC assumes that an asymptomatic person is 75% as likely to infect another person as someone who actually shows symptoms, you know like sneezes or coughs. 

There is no proof, there are no studies that reach this conclusion, it is merely an assumption. The IHME has used this assumption to "model" 33,000 less deaths if we all would just wear masks. I'll tell you a little secret, if there turns out to be less deaths than their projections, they will credit it on mask usage, if there are not less deaths, they will blame it on less than full compliance. Today there was a study (based on modeling) saying we could have saved forty thousand live if we had only used masks from the beginning, stupid Trump. I know that in the "beginning" the CDC, Fauci, the Surgeon General and anyone in our national Health Care elite class within six feet of a microphone told everyone to not wear a mask but hey that was then, geez what boobs you are. Now though peasant, you are unpatriotic if you do not wear a mask according to our assumption. And the assumption is built on the guess that 40% of "cases" are asymptomatic to begin with, but that could vary depending on what day of the week it is. 

I thought the first rule of medicine was "first do no harm." The CDC must not realize that its one and only patient is the United States of America. 

AS SEEN ON TWITTER 7/20/2020

#ClimateTwitter https://t.co/dQOyrwe5mE

— Tom Nelson (@tan123) July 20, 2020

You shouldn’t have to live in fear because you support a Presidential candidate and you may be attacked for showing support. That’s the country we live in today. The days of discussing issues are gone and violence does all the talking. Disgraceful.

— Gianno Caldwell (@GiannoCaldwell) July 20, 2020

Indictment: Silence of the Lambs

 George P. Bush, of all people, said it best. When asked whether he would vote for Trump he answered yes "that is all that stands between America and socialism."
Unfortunately for America, many who are opposed to a socialist America are also not capable of reading the tea leaves, of their own nation's demise, their own self indulged destruction. Two generations of self absorbed civic ignorance bred and fostered by an American education system which had as one of it's most influential stars a man named Bill Ayers. These generations seems hell bent on throwing the "last best hope of earth" into history's waste basket.

There is a reason that so many supposedly capitalist companies financially support what we see as the radical left, the BLM and Antifa movements. They support them, to our chagrin, and it isn't out of corporate stupidity. True, in large part, they do it to pander to a younger demographic for profits, but that is because that younger demographic is rising and the silent ones are falling. We have watched as our children have been conditioned to not respect the wisdom of age, but to disdain it. We watched as our children were taught to hate us and what we allegedly believe in. The motto of the so called silent majority ought to be "help, I've fallen and I can't get up." Perhaps befitting our complacency, the person we have chosen to answer our call is an egomaniac named Donald Trump.

 I do not like Trump, though he often surprises and even amuses me, I am not a fan. I have probably spent as much time yelling at him for his petty narcissism in four years as I did at Obama in eight, often for his petty narcissism. If Trump loses this election, which is very possible, I don't know how I'll be able to feel anything but spite and pity for the man. Trump is a man who, when destiny calls, seldom fails to trip over his own ego on his path towards the greatness he so selfishly craves. If he falls it will be because an ounce of humility was too great a burden for him to bare.

That being said, he is all that stands between America and socialism, or worse. Revolutions are never the product of a majority, but rather they are the offspring of a dedicated minority who either overcome, convince or dupe the majority. This is because the majority in all societies are comprised of followers. In today's America we refer to them as a silent majority.

"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent."

Ironically the author of this quote, often mistakenly attributed to Thomas Jefferson, is not known. We can only assume that the author was once a person of good conscience. Perhaps a member of the "silent majority" of his time.

The silent majority is nothing new, the phrase was coined by a failed president, forced to resign in disgrace. Rightly or wrongly but perhaps prophetically, his silent majority could not save him from his own pettiness. I fear this is being repeated but worse, at the ballot box. The problem we face today is that the so called silent majority is far too silent and not nearly as large a majority as they think they are. As I said in the beginning, there are now two generations of American's that have been taught an entirely different history than we were, and it is toxic to what the silent ones believe in.

Put bluntly, the "Greatest" generation is just an untaught history whose influence is diminishing faster than their numbers. What can you say of us Boomers? We are silent and dying off, those that do not pander to the youth we did not even have the courage to teach, now proclaim the ballot box as our savior. At some point, probably in November, the ballot box will break our heart and if we remain true to our nature, we will live out our lives in silent frustration at what could have, should have been.The unfortunate even tragic truth is we have lost our history and when you lose your past you lose your future. We were complacent. We were silent.

My guess is that it really doesn't matter who wins this election, the outcome is going to be the same, it is just a matter of when. Ultimately the United States will be divided. The "when" is a product more of courage than anything else. Which side will be the first to say "enough is enough," and seek out division with or without bloodshed. No, you say? Well, ask yourself a question, could you live in a society governed by an unchecked opposition party based on what we see the left is becoming and demanding be enacted?  Has the left shown any sign that they will accept any politician or policies selected or enacted from the right? There is no middle anymore, there is just the constitution and socialism. 

If Biden wins, then chances are good that the Senate flips to Democrats. If that happens, the filibuster is gone...for everything. Unlike when Obama and the Democrats controlled everything, not only will the Senate be far more progressive than it was then, there will be absolutely no checks on what the congress can pass into law. Those laws will make the progressive laws enacted in the beginning of the twentieth century seem like a haven of republicanism compared to what the new progressive movement would enact. Open borders will be just one of our worries. How about federal financing (control) of the media and the internet? How about election "reform" that would make it impossible for a Republican congress or president...forever. Do you think that Joe Biden is going to stand up to his party on anything, even if he wanted to?

On a more basic level, I am from Portland, Oregon, it is a beautiful city in a beautiful state, but I no longer consider it a part of the United States. It is a foreign country to me where what they believe is not what I believe, at least as represented by their chosen leadership and policies. The leadership and policies of such places are anathema to everything I believe. Yet my so called fellow citizens vote them in year after year, how do two such opposing viewpoints coexist? Lincoln famously declared that a house divided against itself cannot stand, and history proved him correct. It is not just that I could not live in a nation ruled by the Wheeler's, DeBlassio's and Sanders, their followers obviously cannot live in an America governed by a Trump or even a George W. Bush. In short the modern left cannot live in a nation that adheres to constitutional precepts and I cannot live in a nation that is bent on overturning them. In a marriage there is a term for this, it is called irreconcilable differences. 

 For a time I believed that the socialist left would ultimately be "put in place" by the merely liberal left, but that time has passed the nation by. The confluence of events has led to where what remains of what was once referred to as the moderate Democrats, have had to submit to the socialist left in order to maintain their political power. Now they will either be eaten alive or just continue to die off, ceding the playing field to their radical offspring. They too, the so called moderate left, like the so called conservative right are part of that once powerful silent majority whose silence was in fact denial. Denial that we were willing to let the nation crumble rather than truly fight for what it stood for. Fight for, by simply teaching our children the truth of what America was, instead of complacently letting the Bill Ayers education system rob them of their inheritance. The inheritance of freedom.

 “But I was like a gentle lamb led to the slaughter; And I did not know that they had devised plots against me, saying, “Let us destroy the tree with its fruit, And let us cut him off from the land of the living, That his name be remembered no more”  

AS SEEN ON TWITTER 7/19/2020

These doomsday predictions of 120,000 deaths over winter could come true.

Not from corona but from cancer, cardiac issues and every other serious illness that has been forgotten.

This tunnel vision is so dangerous. Decades of work into cancer awareness undone in a few months.

— Professor Karol Sikora (@ProfKarolSikora) July 19, 2020

This woman is an American hero. #Jesusmatters #refundthepolice #bevelynbeatty pic.twitter.com/oD8ncTNvLk

— Christian Walker (@ChristianWalk1r) July 19, 2020