9/03/2011

Why Obama may not run




Several articles have been written recently suggesting that Obama may not run for a second term. I have even stated that if he reached the point where he believed that he could not win he might not seek a second term in order to protect his massive ego. Most people speculating on this pretty much follow this logic, that to loose would be unbearable to Obama so he simply won't run.

The problem in this is the hypothesis itself has the seeds to it's own discrediting. Obama's ego will not allow him to admit to himself that he can not win, at least in time in which he could conceivably drop out of the race. After all it is not like he can wait until next summer to decide not to run that would throw the entire Democratic Party under the bus. If Obama is going to drop out of the presidential race he will have to do it before February to avoid chaos and in order to give the Democrats a chance at picking someone else, realistically he needs to do it by the end of the year.

With the election so far in the future it is doubtful that a man of Obama's massive self regard would reach the conclusion that he can not somehow talk his way out of his current situation, his personal history is one of talking and charming his way into getting what he wants. One reason he may decide not to run is that, what he will get by winning is not what he wants.

Although he may not be able to admit that he can loose, I seriously doubt that his ego is so generous as to include the rest of his party. The midterms of 2010 showed that he could not bring his fellow Democrats along with him on his narcissistic journey and 2012 is shaping up to be as least as bad a defeat for the Democrats in Congress. The Republicans are almost assured to hold the House and due to redistricting as a result of the census may even pick up some more seats.

In the Senate the situation is shaping up to be even worse for the Democrats. The math alone makes a Republican Senate almost assured, 23 Democratic seats are up compared to just 10 Republicans. Of the 23 Democratic Senate seats that are in play four of the long time incumbents have chosen not to run for re-election all of which are in "swing" states, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Virginia and New Mexico and these are not the only vulnerable Democratic held seats. The Democratic Senators in Missouri, Nebraska, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are among those seeking re-election, again all swing states whose other Senators are Republican showing how open they are. This does not include other potentially vulnerable Democrats in Michigan, New York, Washington and Montana. The Republicans by contrast only have one real vulnerable seat, Scott Brown in Massachusetts. To put it bluntly it would take a minor miracle for the Democrats to hold the Senate.

Some people have mentioned it would be a blessing in disguise for Obama if the Supreme Court overturned Obamacare before the election, thus avoiding him having to defend it as much during the Presidential campaign and people running on repealing it. I doubt that he would get off the hook quite that easily but I am sure that the Democratic Senators will not. If Obamacare is ruled unconstitutional then all these Democratic Senators will have their opponents constantly reminding the voters of all the wasted time spent on a unconstitutional law which every one of them voted for. If it is not overturned then the election will become a referendum on repeal of a law which is severely underwater in the polls.

All of this leads us back to why Obama may not run for re-election. What if he wins, what would he have to look forward to?

If Obama believes that he can win in 2012 but knows that he will probably loose congress to total Republican control, why would he want to subject himself to the conservative onslaught which is bound to follow? Can the same man who sees himself as a transformative historical figure endure the idea of being an inconsequential hanger on?

Bill Clinton faced a similar, though not nearly as intense, situation in 1996. But there was some very important differences. The most important being that there is now a Tea Party Movement which will keep Republicans far more accountable and less likely to "compromise" which Obama is less likely to do anyway since he is far more ideological driven than Clinton was. This means that Obama will be left trying to "go over the congresses head" to the American people. The chances are that if Obama is re-elected it will be by a very narrow margin so this is not going to work. Reagan could do it because he won "mandate" type electoral victories, if Obama somehow wins it will be by a whisker.

This means we will have the most Liberal/Progressive President in American history with what is setting up to be the most conservative congress in modern American political history. It will be a complete stalemate from a legislative standpoint, far more than it is now. From Obama's standpoint it will be even worse than that. Everything that the Obama Administration has enacted over his first term will be under constant attack. Every appointment will be held up or rejected, every legislative initiative he takes will not only be intensely scrutinized but most likely will be rejected. In order to stave off the total undoing of his first term and to stop legislation he disagrees with he will have to employ the veto with all the public scrutiny that this would entail. If Republicans control the entire congress Obama would not be driving the agenda as he did the first two years, he would be on constant defense much as he has been this year but magnified five fold

Despite the portrayal in the sycophant media the Obama Administration, besides being extremely liberal, has been very corrupt. They got away with it for the first two years because of the media's failure to hold them to account and a Democratic congress, but now with a Republican majority in the House, more and more is being investigated and is seeing the light of day. If he were to win re-election and the Republican's were to control both houses of congress there would be no containing the inquiries and investigations into not only questionable constitutional practices but probable criminal activities. Fast and Furious is a political crime where perhaps some laws were broken but a serious probing into some of the financial dealings conducted by this administration could lead to serious corruption probes. Impeachment proceedings would not be outside the realm of possibilities.

This is what Obama has to look forward to if he wins a second term, the question is does he realize this? In the end the best thing that could happen to Obama is to run and loose because if he runs and wins (very doubtful)he will drag himself and the nation into four years of political war the likes of which we have not seen in generations.

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