COVID -19 STATE'S CASE FATALITY RATES

A million asymptomatic test results does not equal even one death.

At this time the only true indicator of how a state is handling or, if you wish, how a state has been impacted by the covid-19 virus is its CFR, (Case Fatality Rate). Though it is true that an individual state's CFR is impacted by the tests done in that particular state, the national testing program has reached the point that it reasonably represents a state's status. If a state is experiencing a spike in cases, it will have far more tests performed per capita, thus the CFR will fairly well reflect the state's condition. Yesterday the United had almost 930,000 test results reported, in a single day.  The only true metric of how a state is "doing" is deaths. Regardless of how many cases or even hospitalizations there may be in any given time period, it is the fatalities that indicate the severity of the outbreak. A million asymptomatic test results does not equal even one death.

The current national CFR is 3.49%, which means that 3.49% of all cases were fatal. This number has steadily dropped over time as more testing is done and will continue to drop. The national CFR reached its peak on May 16th at 5.98%.

Below I will show the State's including DC and Puerto Rico CFR % broken down in thirds. The top third of states with highest CFR are:

 You will notice that Louisiana, though in the top one third of states is now below the national CFR average. I would also note that all states, even those who are experiencing a "surge" in cases, CFR's are dropping as testing ramps up.

The middle third of states are:

Note that the nation's largest state, California ranks 30th of states with the highest CFR and it is not due to a lack of cases or testing, they rank first in both. You will also notice that Arizona, Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama and  South Carolina which all are in the media constantly for being "surge" states, all remain in the second tier of CFR states. 

The bottom third of states with the lowest CFR:

The second and third most populous states in the United States are in the bottom tier of Case Fatality Rate states. Florida ranks 42nd while amazingly Texas ranks 46th. Remember that the more testing done in any state will bring their CFR down, not up. This, I suspect, is why New York and New Jersey who currently have few daily deaths and relatively low numbers of new cases continue to test in enormous numbers, it brings down their CFR.