Not So Confident

Not So Confident

December 7th, 2008

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

I notice with some mild amusement that Joe Romm, who viciously attacks anyone daring to offer a view on climate change science or policy that differs from his own, has offered a bet on future climate change (emphasis in original):

So for all the deniers and delayers touting the coolest year of the decade (if the decade starts in 2001) meme, I stand by my offer to bet $1000 that the decade from 2010 to 2019 will be warmer than the decade from 2000 to 2009. I’ll even give you 2-to-1 odds or spot you 0.1°C.

The funny thing is that Joe’s terms indicate an expressed confidence in warming in the next decade of only 66% (2 to 1 odds). If there is really a 33% percent chance that 2010 to 2019 will be cooler than 2000-2009, then advocacy based on assertions, like Joe’s that, “Global warming is accelerating, as predicted“, is quite a gamble. If Joe thinks skeptics have gotten loud based on the coolest year this decade, just image the state of the debate after a decade of relatively cooler temperatures.

If you want to know why self-described climate skeptics are going extinct no time soon, look to the remarkable lack of confidence shown by one of the most strident voices in the climate corner of the blogosphere. This is exactly the sort of thing that keeps them going.

From Prometheus

Now that is telling