The Morning Call
Pennsylvania
Result Obama +4
Obama 49%, Romney 45%
Turnout Model D+5 (D/R/I) includes leaners
47/42/10
2008 Turnout for PA D+7 (44/37/18)
Partisan Vote O-R
Democrats 82%-15%
Republicans 12%-82%
Independents 37%-47%
Of Note
Gender
Female Obama 52% Romney 42%
Male Obama 45% Romney 49%
Whites Obama 43% Romney 50%
Notes
This poll looks very reasonable to me. Although I don't like when pollsters show "leaners" in their samples this one actually makes total sense. If you take the 3% increase in the Democrats ID from 2008 and the 5% increase in the Republican ID from 2008 you get 8% of the Independents leaning to one party or the other which is precisely the 8% less Independents shown in the polling sample compared to the 2008 exit poll numbers. On the partisan vote numbers they look somewhat off to me since 90% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans voted for their parties candidate in 2008. That being the case there seems to be a great deal of voting across party lines from both parties which I don't think will be the case for Republicans.
Once again the key here is the Independents where Romney leads by 10%, in 2008 Obama carried the Independents in Pennsylvania by 19% (58-39). That is a remarkable 29 point shift among Independents away from Obama. Since this is a very small sample made smaller by distributing "leaners" it could just be an anomaly but it certainly is striking and in keeping with trends everywhere showing Romney winning Independents.
The other numbers that stand out are Gender numbers note that Obama leads Romney by 10% among women but he won Pennsylvania women by 18% in 2008 (59-41). Romney however leads Obama among men by 4% but in 2008 Obama won the male vote by 2% (51-49).
Finally Obama is losing the white vote in Pennsylvania and this could be significant. In 2008 McCain won the white vote by 3% (51-48), in this poll Obama is down to 43% of the white vote if it drops much more it will require a black turnout equal to 2008 to sustain Obama's lead in Pennsylvania.
Take away, Pennsylvania is in play, will Romney try to go after it?
90% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans voted for their parties candidate in 2008
ReplyDelete===============
Jer, I've been looking at this all week...
in 2008, it was the lack of republicans/conservatives that did not vote...that made the turnout less than expected....only ~28% of the republicans/consrvatives voted in 2008
This year the voter demographics have been turned on their ears....with only 4% of the republicans polled saying they will not vote....that's 96% of the republicans saying they are going to vote this time come hell nor high water
Democrats are polling with about 15% saying they will probably not vote this time...and liberals about 11%....non-latino minorities, independents, and latinos are all polling around 20% that they probably will not vote
We all know it was the massive turn out of democrats, minorities, etc...
...with the massive exodus of conservatives and republicans...that put Obama in place
Likely voters are based on the past election, where only 28% of repubs/consers voted...
Here's it is...
http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/image79.png
and that 87% of republicans....means that of the 28% of republicans that voted in 2008...Obama got 13% of their vote
Delete...that won't even happen again
Every state is different, remember this is the state that gave us Arlen Specter. I agree that a higher % of Republicans will vote for Romney than last time, but nationally in 2008 93% voted for McCain pretty typical.
DeleteRepublican turnout in 08 was historically low, but part of that is the result of certain demographics of Dems being historically high IE Blacks and youth vote.
That is why I too believe that this won't be as close as the polls show, even the honest ones.
Plus the fact that republicans don't poll...
Deletethey are scared to death of the liberals
If the liberals win....they have their name address and phone and know exactly who they are
One repubs feel like they are winning...they start polling more