Post of the Day 10/04/2012

Via-Jer's Notes

I have meant to do this since it came out on Tuesday when it came out but other things have gotten in the way.

As I have written on several occasions  I believe that Obama's approval ratings are and will be a far greater indicator of  how the election will go than the "horse race" polls. So here is where my theory stands based upon Obama's Gallup approval ratings for the entire month of September. I use the ethnic numbers for several reasons  mainly because it is the one matrix that should give Obama the greatest advantage due to the historic turn out of minority voters for Obama in 2008. Regardless of which set of demographics you use  however(except partisan turn out), if you plug in Obama's approval ratings into the 2008 election the results will be very close to the same

In September Obama's approval 
Among Whites 39%
Among Black 88%
Among Hispanics 66%

We do not know what it was among the 4% of other ethnic groups so for what follows we will leave his vote among them the same as it was in 2008.

Obama's Vote based upon his approval ratings and 2008 turn out

Whites 74% x 39% = 28.86 of the vote
Blacks 88% x 13% = 11.44 of the vote
Hispanics 66% x 9% = 5.94 of the vote
Other  60% x 4% = 2.4  of the vote

This would give Obama 48.64 % of the vote. Third Party candidates would have to get 2.73% or more of the vote to drop Romney below Obama's total. Since Ross Perot no third candidates have received over 2%.

Will Obama only receive 88% of the black vote? No he will probably receive somewhere in the low to mid nineties, but that will be offset by lower turnout.

The same is true of the Hispanics, though I do not believe that Obama will do as well as the pundits predict with Hispanics. Yes he will win big with Hispanics but it will be concentrated in places where it does not matter, like California and Texas. The Cuban American community is backing Romney in Florida which will negate the Hispanic affect here and since New Mexico is going Obama and Arizona will go for Romney, the only "in play" states that the Hispanic vote could have a real influence are Nevada and Colorado. If Obama is depending on the Hispanic vote to push him over the top in these two states, he is probably in serious trouble elsewhere. As things stand now I suspect that Colorado will go for Romney and Nevada will go for Obama. I do not expect an enthusiastic Hispanic turn out for Obama, the Univision documentary on Fast and Furious and the failure of Obama to pass "comprehensive" immigration reform are going to dampen their enthusiasm.

If Obama is not going to have the turnout among Hispanics and Blacks that he did in 2008 and whites are running away from him, where is he going to pick up the votes? Asians? Actually I have not seen any polling but I suspect that Obama is down with them too.

This is why no president has ever won an election with approval ratings under 50% , the numbers just don't add up. Perhaps Obama will be historic in this regards too, perhaps he will defy political math, but I seriusly doubt it.