The idea behind AGW is that CO2 (the stuff you breathe out and plants breathe in) which is known as a greenhouse gas is accumulating in our atmosphere, this is true. Greenhouse gasses basically reflect radiant heat back to Earth allowing earth to be habitable, without this so called greenhouse affect the Earth would be a frozen barren ice ball, much like Mars. Mars by the way has an atmosphere which is composed of over 95% CO2, Earth's atmosphere by comparison is composed of 0.0384% CO2, so frigid Mars has roughly 250 times more CO2 in its atmosphere than comfortable Earth.
The AGW theory is that since man is burning fossil fuels at an ever increasing rate this will cause the Earth to heat up. Obviously there has to be more than CO2 in the atmosphere to cause this as is evidence of the Martian example. Even the many proponents of AGW, who actually know the science, do not believe that this extra CO2 will melt our planet, for several reasons.
First CO2 looses its greenhouse affect the more you add, like adding coats of paint on a wall, eventually extra paint has no affect on the color of the wall, so it is with CO2 in the atmosphere. It is recognized that a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels in and of itself would not raise the Earth's temperature by more than 2 degC, we are over half way there already. This amount of warming would not have any real negative affect on the planet, its eco systems or us, in fact it would be very beneficial, but that is a subject for another time.
So why all the concern? Well what we know as Global Warming, now known as Climate Change, is actually based on a theory known as Enhanced Global Warming. Now Enhanced Global Warming which few people realize is the actual theory, is that by increasing the heat of the Earth by an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere we will cause a chain reaction of sorts. The warmer temperatures caused by the increased CO2 will cause increased water vapor in the atmosphere through evaporation.
Why is water vapor important? Water Vapor is the number one greenhouse gas, the numero uno, the big kahuna, WATER VAPOR is the greenhouse gas. Or as the late Reid Bryson said
"YOU CAN GO OUTSIDE AND SPIT AND HAVE AS MUCH EFFECT AS DOUBLING CARBON DIOXIDE".
By the way the reason doubling of of CO2 is important has to do with the painted room part of the story.
The point is that the AGW theory, in it's simplest form says, the more CO2 we release into the atmosphere the warmer it is going to get-period. Don't believe me? Well here you go, the chart below comes directly from the IPCC.
Figure 1. Projected increases in 21st century global average temperature assuming different CO2 emissions futures (described below). These projections are from the 4AR Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), and appear in Figure SPM-5 of the Working Group I “Summary for Policymakers”.11 The zero level was set to the average temperature between 1980–1999, which is why most of the 20th century shows negative values.
To put it simply those various lines show what the temperature should do based on how much we breathe, uh, I mean pollute the atmosphere with nasty CO2. That bottom line on the chart shows what was projected if we do not breathe any more than what we did in the year 2000, the top line is what should happen if we hyperventilate. The world has not quite been hyperventilating CO2 since 2000 but pretty close to it. But guess what?
2008 will be coolest year of the decade
Don't see that on the chart now do we?
As a matter of fact, it does not matter which global temperature measuring institution you use, temperatures are not going up. Indeed a case could easily be made and it is, that we are getting colder.
Let me point out something from that story above. They link this very troubling looking graph.
I won't even get into that little statement in the upper left corner, and its implications, I'll make it simpler.
Note that coldest year down there on the bottom in what looks like 1911 that shows it got way down to almost -.4 degC and then look way up there in what looks to be 1998 where it almost got to +.5 degC, you see that? Pretty drastic isn't it? Well do the math, the temperature difference between the coldest year on that chart and the warmest is.....drum roll please .9 degrees Celsius. For us Americans that is 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. So the hottest and coldest years in the 20th century according to that scary looking chart is less than 2 degrees, are you scared yet?
So whats going on here? Idiocy, but I won't even get into that, now. I want to point out that what is often believed to be absolutely true, turns out not to be. Nowhere is this more common than in the sciences. A few examples;
The most often sited one is Galileo and his troubles trying to convince the scientist and government of his time (the church) that the earth was not the center of the universe. He was persecuted to the point that he eventually recanted this heresy and was allowed to live, under house arrest, but alive. Of course we know that we are not the center of the universe now, right?
As time went on we got smarter despite centuries of one scientific idea being disproved by another we came to learn that their really are no absolutes in science. That is why Eugenics became all the rage at the turn of the century and beyond.
The Eugenics movement quickly became standard education in high school Biology and College. By 1928, the American Genetics Association boasted that there were 376 college courses devoted exclusively to eugenics. High-school biology textbooks followed suit by the mid-1930s, with most containing material favorable to the idea of eugenical control of reproduction. It would thus have been difficult to be an even moderately educated reader in the 1920s or 1930s and not have known, at least in general terms, about the claims of eugenics.
This particular scientific truth accepted by some of the most distinguished scientist, scholars, politicians and philosophers of their time was also adopted by such luminaries as Adolph Hitler and institutions such as the KuKlux Klan.
How about some real science here, huh? Obviously that is a random example of misplaced trust. How about a little lobotomy, you know where doctors actually believed you could solve mental illness by cutting out portions of the brain.
Between 1939 and 1951, over 18,000 lobotomies were performed in the US, and many more in other countries. It was often used on convicts, and in Japan it was recommended for use on “difficult” children.
Obviously we know today that not only was this practice wrong, it was not really scientifically justified despite a very wide acceptance and a consensus of scientist and doctors for its use.
Although lobotomies and eugenics seem as if they are something out of the dark ages, they in fact were twentieth century beliefs, endorsed and practiced by the most esteemed professionals in the field.
In the early 70's many scientist were predicting the coming ice age. Some of these same scientist are now strong proponents of the AGW theory, it would almost be laughable if the very possible and growing consequences were not so serious to the future. The entire Global Warming now Climate Change hokum pokum that has infiltrated the very fabric of the modern world. The idea, often expressed, that taking steps to mitigate global warming whether it exists or not can only have positive affects. I can and will write pages on why this is not true but to make it simple I'll just say I have never known anything which was based on a lie to be positive.
Either way it is not worth worrying excevly about, I would not want to get an ulcer
In the past, it was believed stress and diet caused peptic ulcers. Later, researchers stated stomach acids (hydrochloric acid and pepsin) contributed to the majority of ulcer formation. Today, however, research shows that most ulcers develop as a result of infection with a bacterium called Helicobacter pylori.
Oh well so much for that scientific belief.
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