I was going through some old articles when I came upon the following which I originally posted on my Skeptics Corner Blog on September 4 2009. I had forgotten about it but it appears my predictive powers were right on target here. Here is the post in its entirety.
Jer
Not a market- a cause
Consider these two stories and how the global warming hysteria has so terribly maligned the market system. The first from Silicone Valley/San Jose Business Journal
Report: Lights out next year for many in solar industry
Massive inventory buildup and Chinese competition could put half of all solar manufacturers out of business next year, according to a market research firm.
The report from The Information Network said inventory is averaging 122 days in 2009 versus 71 days in 2008.
Further, it reports that production has dropped to 27.9 percent of potential capacity in 2009 from 48 percent in 2008.
"As many as 50 percent of the more than 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above $2 per watt, may not survive," the report said. Making matters worse, lower cost products from China are projected to drop to below $1 per watt in 2010 and 50 cents in 2011.
A number of solar panel manufacturers have reported losses in recent weeks including Energy Conversion Devices Inc., JA Solar, LDK Solar Co., Q-Cells, ReneSola Ltd., Solar Power Inc., and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd.
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Now any reasonable person would read that and surmise that the solar power panel business was not a good investment at this time. The market, for the reasons explained , "is way down" and "inventories are up". But solar power is not a market, it is a cause. from Silicone Valley Mercury News :
With $535M federal loan, Solyndra begins work on Fremont solar-panel plant
Solyndra, a privately held Fremont company, is using a $535 million loan from the U.S. Treasury to build its second solar-panel factory.
Solyndra celebrated the boost for solar power with star power: an event with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu — and, via satellite from the White House, Vice President Joe Biden.
"We have adopted policies in California that have driven demand for solar and other renewable technologies, and our businesses and entrepreneurs are rising to the challenge," Schwarzenegger said, according to a statement from his office.
Construction on the fabrication plant, or "fab," began today next to the company's first factory in Fremont, Solyndra said in a statement. The new fab is designed to produce enough rooftop photovoltaic solar panels to generate 500 megawatts of power a year.
"The economy needs clean-tech alternatives to help it recover, but our planet requires clean-tech solutions in order to survive," Solyndra CEO Chris Gronet said in a statement.
The second factory "will allow us to meet customer demand while making a positive impact on the world's energy and environmental needs," Gronet said.
Solyndra said it was the first company to secure a loan backed by the U.S. Department of Energy under a 2005 law to encourage the production of renewable energy. The $535 million loan was combined with $198 million in funding led by Argonaut Private Equity, Solyndra said.
The company said about 1,000 people will work at the plant once construction is done.
Report: Lights out next year for many in solar industry
Massive inventory buildup and Chinese competition could put half of all solar manufacturers out of business next year, according to a market research firm.
The report from The Information Network said inventory is averaging 122 days in 2009 versus 71 days in 2008.
Further, it reports that production has dropped to 27.9 percent of potential capacity in 2009 from 48 percent in 2008.
"As many as 50 percent of the more than 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above $2 per watt, may not survive," the report said. Making matters worse, lower cost products from China are projected to drop to below $1 per watt in 2010 and 50 cents in 2011.
A number of solar panel manufacturers have reported losses in recent weeks including Energy Conversion Devices Inc., JA Solar, LDK Solar Co., Q-Cells, ReneSola Ltd., Solar Power Inc., and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd.
************
Now any reasonable person would read that and surmise that the solar power panel business was not a good investment at this time. The market, for the reasons explained , "is way down" and "inventories are up". But solar power is not a market, it is a cause. from Silicone Valley Mercury News :
With $535M federal loan, Solyndra begins work on Fremont solar-panel plant
Solyndra, a privately held Fremont company, is using a $535 million loan from the U.S. Treasury to build its second solar-panel factory.
Solyndra celebrated the boost for solar power with star power: an event with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu — and, via satellite from the White House, Vice President Joe Biden.
"We have adopted policies in California that have driven demand for solar and other renewable technologies, and our businesses and entrepreneurs are rising to the challenge," Schwarzenegger said, according to a statement from his office.
Construction on the fabrication plant, or "fab," began today next to the company's first factory in Fremont, Solyndra said in a statement. The new fab is designed to produce enough rooftop photovoltaic solar panels to generate 500 megawatts of power a year.
"The economy needs clean-tech alternatives to help it recover, but our planet requires clean-tech solutions in order to survive," Solyndra CEO Chris Gronet said in a statement.
The second factory "will allow us to meet customer demand while making a positive impact on the world's energy and environmental needs," Gronet said.
Solyndra said it was the first company to secure a loan backed by the U.S. Department of Energy under a 2005 law to encourage the production of renewable energy. The $535 million loan was combined with $198 million in funding led by Argonaut Private Equity, Solyndra said.
The company said about 1,000 people will work at the plant once construction is done.
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The disconnect here seems to be obvious. Not only is taxpayers money being used to subsidize an industry that can not be self supporting, it is subsidizing an industry that is "mired in red ink" and "may not survive". Even the potential "stimulus" generated by the subsidy is not warranted if as the first story makes clear there is no market for what they are subsidizing, thus no jobs.
Everything about the second story is a sham, from the Governator " "We have adopted policies in California that have driven demand for solar and other renewable technologies, and our businesses and entrepreneurs are rising to the challenge,"
If that is the case why is there such a glut of product and more importantly why do the businesses and entrepreneurs need subsidies? If you have created a market then the businesses ought to be able to support themselves-huh?
Then we have this from one of those alleged entrepreneurs:
The second factory "will allow us to meet customer demand while making a positive impact on the world's energy and environmental needs," Gronet said.
Well if you have such demand why do you need The Governator and Nobel Laureate Chu to write you checks to meet it? Just another casualty in the global warming mirage-the market system.
..and to top it all off
ReplyDeletenow the Chinese companies are going under too